Research digests · Organized retail crime
NRF Impact of Retail Theft and Violence 2026: what it found
| Publisher | National Retail Federation |
|---|---|
| Year | 2026 |
| Report | https://nrf.com/research/the-impact-of-retail-theft-violence-2026 |
The National Retail Federation’s 2026 Impact of Retail Theft and Violence report finds prevention is working on volume while the threat changes shape. Responding retailers saw shoplifting and merchandise theft incidents fall, organized groups moved toward scams and supply chain theft, and violence stayed a concern for stores.
What it measured
The report surveys retailers on theft, violence, and fraud, and on how organized theft groups operate. It is a survey of respondents, not a count of every store, so its figures describe the retailers who answered. Use it as a direction-of-travel signal for a program, and use a store’s own incident and shrink data for decisions about that store.
Headline findings
- Incidents fell. On average, respondents saw a 12.4% decrease in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1% decrease in merchandise theft incidents between 2024 and 2025 (NRF). NRF attributes this in part to retailers’ efforts to protect goods, employees, and consumers.
- Repeat offenders and organized crime still drive the concern: NRF says their activity indicates theft remains a major concern across the nation (NRF).
- Organized groups are changing methods. Retailers report rises in phone scams, gift card fraud, and cargo and supply chain theft (NRF).
- Violence remains a concern, with more homelessness-related incidents and guest-related violence reported (NRF).
- Ninety-four percent of respondents agree federal legislation would help disrupt organized theft groups (NRF).
How to use it in a program
A drop in incident counts is the moment to protect the training that produced it, not to cut it. The method shift matters more for store teams than the headline decline. Phone scams and gift card fraud reach the register, so cashier training on gift card scam red flags now belongs in the organized retail crime plan. Cargo and supply chain theft reach the receiving door, which is a different associate with a different checklist.
| Finding | Who in the store it reaches | Program response |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer shoplifting incidents | Sales floor | Keep the observe-and-report habit in the huddle rotation |
| Scams and gift card fraud rising | Cashiers | Register script, signage, manager decides refusals |
| Cargo and supply chain theft rising | Receivers | Count before signing, report shortages before the driver leaves |
| Violence still a concern | Every associate | De-escalation, distance, alert, never confront |
Limits
The landing page summarizes findings; the full methodology sits in the downloadable report. Survey averages hide wide variation by format and region. The legislation figure measures support, not effect. For associate-level guidance built on these findings, see how to train associates on organized retail crime and the organized retail crime hub.
What to do this week
- Add one register scam scenario to next month’s huddle rotation.
- Walk the receiving door with the closer and confirm the count-before-signing rule.
- Keep the de-escalation refresher on the calendar even if theft counts are down.
- Compare the store’s own incident log with the report’s direction before changing anything.